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Modelling internal and external migration flows across Russia's regions | 15-11-2005
Start Date: June 2005
Completion Date: June 2006

The project has been implemented with the financial support of the «Program of Strengthening Economic Think Tanks in Russia» provided by Moscow Public Science Foundation (MPSF).

Project Summary:

Migration policy issues are becoming more and more acute in the present-day Russia given the dramatic decrease of population in general and of labor force in particular. The main project objective is to build a model of internal and external migration flows, including migration flows across Russia, between Russia and the CIS and between Russia and non-CIS countries. The deliverables also include a user manual, which allows external users to conduct imitation analysis under different scenarios.

Project Output:

The project group has built a model of internal and external migration flows, including migration flows across Russia, between Russia and the CIS and Russia and non-CIS countries. The model is based on data on migration flows in Russia and other countries for the period of 1992-2003, as well as demographic and socio-economic indicators received from the statistic committees of Russia and the CIS countries.

The dynamic model considers pairs of regions and estimates the relation of the number of migrants from one region to another in the current year to the same indicator and the reverse migration flow in the previous year. The model takes into account specific regional characteristics, such as real incomes, unemployment rate, demographic indicators, indicators of public goods provision in regions. The model is further complicated by introduction of a third region for each pair of regions. The third region is regarded as an alternative to the second region from the point of view of the first one. To be able to make long term projections, we have added macroeconomic variables for Russia, including GDP growth and export in percent of GDP.

We have also developed a Microsoft Excel user manual, which allows users to forecast internal and external migration flows across Russia’s regions as well as analyze different scenarios at the regional and national levels based on various demographic and socio-economic indicators.

The model can be used in future projects, in particular in developing a forecast of internal and external migration flows in Russia for the period of 2005 — 2025.

Analitical Report:

«An applied model of internal and external migration flows across the regions of the Russian Federation» (in Russian) by  Yury Andrienko, Sergey Guriev
Nakhimovsky prospect 47, office 920 & 720 117418 Moscow Russia
Phone: +7 (495) 925 5002 Fax: +7 (495) 925 5003
E-mail: cefir (at)
Centre for Economic and Financial