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Main page | Research and Policy Projects
Further development and practical application of a set of economic and mathematical models to analyze and predict the correlation of Russian Railways activity indicators and the development of the Russian economy at the sectoral and regional levels | 11-10-2013
 
Project Dates: September — November 2013

The project is implemented for the Center for Strategic Research.


The project objectives are the following:
  • to analyze international experience;

  • to develop a gravity model for passenger traffic, the shift model;

  • to improve the transport sector representation in the general equilibrium model with the separation of rail and road transport;

  • to develop models of cargo base increment (traffic demand) due to enhanced transport links between Russian regions (expanding the capacity of roads and railways) and reduced transportation costs;

  • to analyze international experience, including those of China, developed European countries, USA and Canada, in the field of development and application of performance evaluation systems used for strategic planning and transport development management for the benefit of economics and society. To study European Union experience on assessing the efficiency of projects on Trans-European Transportation Network (TEN-T) development on the basis of macro-economic modeling using economic and mathematical models. To select the best practices that could be used with regard to Russian environment;

  • intermediate consolidation: the elasticity of transportation and total costs, the share of transportation costs in the production costs of different sectors and the share of transportation costs in total added value;

  • to assess the impact of investing in the transport development by scenarios of priority projects implementation and depending on the scenarios of industries development on the macro-economic indicators: GDP, inflation rate, industrial production growth rate (based on the general equilibrium model);

  • to evaluate the impact of the parameters of freight transportation development both in general, and by transport types, on the country\'s GDP growth, major freight- industries GVA, industrial production growth rates, inflation rate;

  • to develop a model of shifting loads;

  • to develop a gravity model of inter-regional trade;

  • to develop scenarios to calculate the aftereffects of infrastructure investment for the demand on international container transportation;

  • to evaluate the increasing integration into the world economy due to development of transportation transit.
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